Okay, you can let go of my arm now.

Because I have finally decided to post my pre-season predictions. Everybody else who posts predictions has done so, and I can't read their picks until I pick mine.
So here goes:
Top Twelve (in no particular order):
Tony Stewart
The DeWalt Driver (I promised Babs that I will not mention his name here, because every time I have in the past it seems to jinx him. He is, after all, one of my second favorite drivers.)
Kyle Busch
Denny Hamlin
Carl Edwards
Jeff Gordon
Jimmy Johnson
Dale Earnhardt, Jr
Martin Truex, Jr
Juan Pablo Montoya
Ryan Newman
Kurt Busch
Biggest story of the year:
The return of the manufacturer's rivalry. Toyota and Chevrolet will enter a rivalry reminiscent of the old days, as Toyota ends Chevy's near domination of NASCAR. This will be good, economically, for both manufacturers, and auto sales for both will rise in volume as a result.
Dark Horse story of the year:
Dave Blaney will finally get his first Cup victory.
Rookie of the Year:
There are three viable choices here. Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith, and Michael McDowell. I would love to pick McDowell, as he is relatively unknown among NASCAR fans and press, and he is a very talented driver. However, I think Smith has the talent and drive of Denny Hamlin in his rookie year, and, unlike McDowell, he will be running a full season. So Regan Smith is my pick for this category.
And, finally, my prediction for the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion:
I do not think Jimmy Johnson will threepeat, though he will continue to increase his wins column. This really is Tony Stewart's year, because everything already seems to be going his way. He has already shown a controversial demonstration of his passion, and that passion is what wins him races and championships. Being the top driver for Toyota has also given him incentive to race for a new goal. I think the points race will be close, throughout the first 26 races, and even through the final ten, but I do believe Stewart will prevail.
Yes I am prejudiced, but I did try to be as objective as possible in my choices.
This will be a great season for NASCAR I feel, with the return of old school racing and very close competition. Enjoy!

Short Track Ecstasy

This past weekend was a short track lover's delight, with the NASCAR Toyota All-Stars Showdown, and the NASCAR CTS and Cup series races at Martinsville. There was plenty of beatin' and bangin' to satisfy every fan who is passionate about short track racing.
The NCTS (Craftsman Truck Series) has developed a habit of having close championship points competition, and this year is no different. The lead changes between Hornaday and Skinner every race. Isn't it great to see two of the original members of the series competimg so fiercely?
Talk about fierce competition, how 'bout Sunday's Cup race? Although I haven't given up on my favorite driver, yet, I am beginning to realize that this just may not be Smoke's year, but that thought did not dampen my enthusiasm for the race. There may have been a tad too many cautions for my liking, but overall, it was exciting, even with The Gordon leading. The thought never left my mind that something could happen even if it never did.
No, Jeff the Almighty didn't get taken out of the race, but he didn't win, either, which keeps my picks percentage embarrassingly low. Nonetheless, the race had everything one could expect from a short track Cup race.
Super secret insider conspiracy report: Lauren Wallace made his long awaited NASCAR Cup Series debut, Sunday, in the DEI #1 car. The driver of the Bass Pro Shops #1 car was thought to be Martin Truex, Jr, but a crew member who had returned to the hauler to get more parts for the crash cart, halfway through the found Truex bound and gagged behind the big trailer. Meanwhile, the #1 car was doing everything its driver could to put every car on the track into the wall. Young Wallace's true identity wasn't discovered until after the race was over.
When asked why he highjacked Truex's car, the young television star replied that he wanted everybody to say, "There goes Lauren Wallace, the greatest driver ever to get behind a wheel."
When asked why he didn't try to take out the points leader, Jeff Gordon, when he had the chance, Wallace implied that the time would come when Gordon least expected it.
"Poor fellow, he has no idea," said Wallace, "He'll be looking around saying, 'where's Lauren Wallace?' I'm a hundred miles away, son, ready to strike."
As of the time of this writing, no team has announced security measures to prevent Wallace from getting into another car.

Back to normal? I hope not!

So far, the Chase for the Championship this year has been full of unusual events and twists of fate. With Ryan Newman taking the pole at Lowe's, and Jimmie Johnson has been, for all practical purposes, already been credited with the win at his "home" track Saturday night. Yes, NASCAR may be going back to "normal."
Do we really want normal? Normal is for Formula 1, where, normally the race is over after the first or second lap, and the rest of the event is only to see if the leader can stay on the track. Normal, in racing, is the Open Wheel Champ Car World Series (Champcar) shooting itself in the foot.
We are NASCAR fans because we don't want normal. We want the surprise endings we get to the races. We are not ready to give Jimmie Johnson the Championship.
We're not ready to give up on our drivers who do not drive for HMS.
Normal would mean that, with its typical military-like precision, Hendrick Motorsports would make no mistakes, that the race at Lowe's will go perfectly for the #48 team even if they get in a wreck early in the race. Normal would be boring for most of us.
Nobody is mathematically out of the Chase, yet. Kevin Harvick, 202 points out of the lead with six races left, is still a very viable candidate to win the Championship. And, we know, Tony Stewart isn't about to give up.
If I were to make my picks for Saturday's race, they would be based on my emotional feelings, not on facts or statistics. I would pick Tony Stewart to win and Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to take each other out of the race. That is not likely to happen, and is rather fantasimal thinking. It is not normal, and I like it that way.

How quickly things change.

Photo Credit: Jeff Roberson / The Associated Press


What an exciting finish to the Busch Series race at Kansas on Saturday. Matt Kenseth and Kyle "The Schrub" Busch battled it out for six laps to the finish, bringing back memories of "back in the day," when Petty and Pearson, or Pearson and Bobby Allison or (name your favorite rivalry) raced hard for the checkers. It was one great race.
Unfortunately for The Schrub, his team will be penalized for failing post race inspection. His intake manifold was confiscated, and we will likely hear about a penalty sometime next week.
Speaking about penalties, my favorite bad boy Tony Stewart will most likely get one for using inappropriate language on the air. It doesn't matter that it wasn't during an interview, but, rather, during a random, candid shot by the photographer, he will still get penalized, and likely get a heavy one since he is on probation. I think the ESPN director who switched to that camera and had the audio on should be fined as well. I am hoping that the penalty won't hurt Tony's chances for winning the Championship.
And, this has changed since my previous post: Jimmie Johnson will start at the rear of the field after crashing in Happy Hour practice, and going to a back up car. I'm not saying that the Johnson/Knaus team won't find their way toward the front, because they have demonstrated that they can, but it still changes the complexion of the race's early laps. Scott Riggs will be starting from the pole, as the inside line all moves up one row, so it will be a Ford vs Dodge start.
If Saturday is any indication of what we will see Sunday, we are in for a grand time.

Wrong

My regular reader knows that I am a Tony Stewart fan. Stewart, who finished third at Loudon, last week failed post race inspection for his car being too low at one fender. Under the watchful eyes of top NASCAR officials John Darby and Jim Hunter, the team was allowed to repair the race damage, and the car was reinspected, passing the inspection and resulting in no penalty.
Something similar went on in post-race inspection at Dover with the 99 team of Carl Edwards. His right rear fender was found to be too low, and, even though NASCAR officials found that the infraction was unintentional and not a CoT violation, Edwards was docked 25 championship points, and the team docked 25 owners points. We must be missing something here.
First of all, a low right rear fender would seriously effect the handling of the car, the wrong way. The car would push, meaning it would be difficult to turn in the corners, and would lose rear bite on the straightaways, making it very difficult to pass or avoid hazards. The penalty makes even less sense when considering this.
Right now, it seems like no biggy. It knocks Edwards from third in points to sixth, but still only 28 points behind championship leader The Gordon. As we have seen in the past, 25 points can be huge in the Championship Chase. In 2004, Jimmie Johnson lost the championship by to Kurt Busch by eight points. In 2005, Smoke won the championship by a mere 35 points over the tied second place of Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle.
I have read some comments claiming that the Edwards penalty shows that NASCAR is becoming more consistant, but how is that so? Where do you draw the line between unavoidable race damage and unintentional spec infractions? It now seems possible that NASCAR could use penalties to keep the points chase close, which would seriously compromise the value of the championship. We can only hope that this penalty is overruled by the appeals board. Otherwise, it is very wrong.

A Minor Rant on Points and Provisionals

Some NASCAR journalists and fans believe that giving championship points for winning pole qualifying would be a good idea. It really isn't, because it doesn't make sense under the current qualifying system. First of all, on most tracks on the ciruit, the pole position practically guarantees a five point bonus for leading the first lap, unless there are mechanical problems or the driver's reflexes are slow.
Secondly, bonus points for qualifying in first place would serve no logical purpose. The teams already have the incentive for making the car as fast as possible for qualifying, and the carrot of bonus points won't make the cars any faster. It may result in more reckless qualifying runs, as drivers try to gain bonus points and wreck their cars before the race actually starts. The "have not" teams who are only trying to get into the race would be left out of any chance for any pole position bonus points.
If there is to be any change in qualifying rules, it could be suggested that the top thirty-five provisionals rule be ammended. For instance, rather than carrying the provisional positions from the end of the previous season through the first five races, use the standings only for the first race, the Daytona 500, then apply the new points standings to the next race. The provisional system was added to the mix two years ago, when there were fewer full time teams in the NASCAR Nextel Cup series, and the idea was to reward the full time teams so they would have a starting position in every race. Now that there are more than forty-three teams who are attempting full time participation, the provisional rules are no longer relevant in that sense.
Personally speaking, I was never much of a fan of the thirty-five place provisionals. Being somewhat of a traditionalist, I sincerely believe that the forty-three fastest cars should be in the race. It would be a step in the right direction if the number of qualifying provisionals was reduced, to perhaps the top twenty in points. This would add to the level of competition, in both qualifying and racing, and would still make more sense than points for qualifying.

I will go along with the changes NASCAR announced Monday. The additional points for the winner of each race is a points tweak that has been needed for a long time. The following chart showing the potential difference in the points standings is copyright of the Washington Post.

2006 Pre-Chase Standings

Pos. Driver Points
1. M. Kenseth 5,050
2. J. Johnson 5,045
3. K. Harvick 5,040
4. Ky. Busch 5,035
5. D. Hamlin 5,030
6. D. Earnhardt Jr. 5,025
7. M. Martin 5,020
8. J. Burton 5,015
9. J. Gordon 5,010
10. K. Kahne 5,005
11. T. Stewart --
12. G. Biffle --


2006 Pre-Chase Standings Under 2007 Points System*

Pos. Driver Points Wins Adj. Points
1. Kahne 5,000 5 5,050
2. Kenseth 5,000 4 5,040
3. Johnson 5,000 4 5,040
4. Harvick 5,000 3 5,030
5. Stewart 5,000 2 5,020
6. Gordon 5,000 2 5,020
7. Hamlin 5,000 2 5,020
8. Busch 5,000 1 5,010
9. Earnhardt 5,000 1 5,010
10. Biffle 5,000 1 5,010
11. Martin 5,000 0 5,000
12. Burton 5,000 0 5,000


*If the 2007 rules had been in effect, here's how the pre-chase standings would have looked last season