Disappointment

I was wrong. I predicted that there would be some racing at TMS, which isn't even called TMS anymore, but the Great American Speedway. I predicted that the parity brought about by the Sprint Cup car would result in some good fender to fender competition, of which, in reality, we saw very little.
This is not to belittle Carl Edward's victory--the #99 Roush-Fenway Ford team had its act together--something not many of the other teams seemed to have. So it wasn't a case of "the wrong guy" won the race, but that, similar to Atlanta, it was a race of attrition, rather than one of drivers' and crew chiefs' skills.
Jeff Gordon fell off early, with a car that wasn't prepared for the track at all. He ended the race in position 43, for only the second time in his sixteen year NASCAR Cup career. Greg Biffle who had a promising start to the race, and looked good early, also had to drop out of competition, if not the race.
The problem this time wasn't the tires, but all the yet unknown qualities of the new car and how it reacts to differing track conditions. Testing on one intermediate track is not good for all, as there is really no such thing as "cookie cutter" tracks. Therefore, this blogger takes some solace in the fact that he was correct in his original surmise that the refusal of NASCAR to allow testing at Texas would result in actions detrimental to the fans' enjoyment of the race.
We discovered that the era of the phantom caution is not over after all. We saw at least one of those, and if the purpose was to tighten up the field, it was too late. By that time thirty-three of the forty-three cars were a lap or more down.
We expected some lapped cars, especially at GAS (no, I won't call it that, it is still TMS to me), where the high speeds often separate the men from the boys. In addition lapped cars make the restarts exciting and should run some interference for the leaders to allow the rest of the field to catch up. But lapped traffic was overdone at TMS this time, because there were only ten or so cars that came to the race with a competitive set-up.
Still, all this means is that the teams have much more work to do. The more the car is used, the more the engineers and crew chiefs can figure out what they need to make the car more competitive. So there is something positive to take from Texas. After all, the sold out crowd seemed to have a great time at the race--it is better to be there than to watch the race on television, especially with the mediocre race coverage we saw. The teams can take the positive route and put the Samsung 500 behind them as a learning experience. The racing can only get better from here.

Some questions to ponder. If TMS was a track owned by NASCAR's ISC, rather than Bruton Smith's organization, would NASCAR have allowed an extra testing session there?

If Kyle Busch was criticized for not sticking around last year after he wrecked his car, should Jeff Gordon be criticized for quitting when he had a car that didn't handle the way he wanted it to?

If the "core fan" yearn for racing the way it was in "the old days," shouldn't the Samsung 500 have been a reason to celebrate?

And finally, to Jimmy Spencer, who declared that Carl Edwards would have won four races if it hadn't been for mechanical failure at Atlanta, doesn't that mean it would still only be three if Tony Stewart hadn't cut a tire at Las Vegas?

It's Texas Time!

Well, it's time for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series to take the green flag at another "cookie cutter" track that really isn't a cookie-cutter copy of anything else on the track. The traction the track at TMS offers makes it one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, and the transition out of turn four makes it treacherous. We had some trepidation about the fact that the Sprint Cup Cars were going to this track with very little previous testing, but, so far, there have been no apparent problems, with the exception of this incident that happened during qualifying:

If you don't see the video, please click here.

There was also the incident of Tony Stewart cutting a tire in the Nationwide Series race on Saturday, but that was more than likely a result of the set up, rather than tire problems such as the ones experienced at Las Vegas earlier this year.
It should also be noted that Goodyear has remedied the problem of the non-competitive tires they brought to Atlanta, by bringing a tire similar to the ones they used at Texas, except with a stiffer sidewall on the right-side tires. These are the tires that Clint Bowyer's team tested earlier this year at TMS, with similar results, so credit should be given to the tire manufacturer for bringing the model they tested to the race, something they apparently haven't done before.

So, we should be in for a better race at TMS than we saw at Atlanta. That is not to say that there won't be more than half the field one or more laps down by the end of the race--that is just one of the characteristics of these "intermediate" tracks--but racing will mean more than just letting the other guy pass.
And, from the looks of the starting lineup, there will be some real racing right from the start. Pole-sitter Dale Earnhardt, Jr, is joined in the top five starting positions by Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson; all drivers known for being hard racers. This will not only give us some potential fire works from the drop of the green flag, but should keep the field close together for a while. Then we would have to worry about engine durability, because there will be a lot of running at high RPM.
But, if the engines hold up, if the tires stay up, and if nobody does anything immature or stupid (that's a long shot) there should be something to interest every race fan. Jr's going for his first win since 2006, which is almost expected, but there are a lot of strong cars in the race as well. It is a given that Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth (he's beyond any jinx I can put on him, Babs)and Brian Vickers will make their way toward the front. Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, and Jeff Burton are also figured to make a good run for the finish, which shouldn't be surprising to anybody considering the performance of RCR lately. To keep it simple, barring problems, there are going to be a lot of drivers who have a chance to play with the trophy guns in Victory Lane. (The trophy at TMS includes a pair of genuine six shooters, loaded with blanks, and a ten gallon hat.)
Personally, I think it is going to be a Toyota driver who gets to look silly in a cowboy hat.

Is NASCAR going too far for a thrill?

Early this week, NASCAR recieved an offer from Texas Motor Speedway President Eddie Gossage to add a test session at TMS before the Samsung 500 April 6th, but NASCAR turned the offer down.
Gossage's reasons for wanting the tests were sound, especially when it comes to safety issues. There were eleven cautions at last weekend's UAW-Dodge, in spite of testing, he points out, also noting that because of weather changes, the testing at LVMS earlier this year wasn't conclusive.

"My concern is that they did have an open test at Las Vegas and still had a record number of cautions, including three serious crashes involving former Cup champions," said Gossage, referring to wrecks involving Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch. "We only have had a two-car Goodyear test so we could see a lot of crashes, and that causes me concern. I'm sure the teams would like as much data and track time as possible to reach that comfort level with the car and its performance at our speedway."

Texas should have a test, in my opinion, before the Cup race there, because it is probably the most treacherous of the 1.5 mile tri-ovals on the Cup schedule. The transitions from the straightaways to the turns, and visa versa are abrupt, and since everybody will be a rookie at that track it should be important for the teams to find out how the Sprint Cup car will react to those transitions. We can only be certain, from what we have seen, that it will not act like the other car did. Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton agree:

"I think Texas will be the toughest track we go to with this car, [and] it's already a tough racetrack," Gordon said. "And when you look at the transitions, the vertical loads, the bumps and the speeds, it's probably going to be closer to [Las Vegas] than to any other track we go to. The biggest challenge we're going to have with the Impala going forward this year is going to tracks that we haven't tested at and been to and gotten the data and the laps with the telemetry."
Added Jeff Burton, defending champion of Texas' spring race: "I think there are a lot of challenges at Texas -- maybe more so than [Las Vegas]. Texas is a little rougher. With this car, the bumps seem to be a pretty major issue, so I think Texas is going to be quite a challenge with this car. Some teams are going to hit and some teams aren't. The success we were able to do there last year, none of that works. None of that information will be worth a hoot, so it's starting all over again."

Does NASCAR not learn? They waited until after the death of Fireball Roberts before they required fire extinguishers and the rubberized fuel cell that helps prevent fuel from spilling. They waited until after Bobby Allison's near fatal accident, and the fatal accidents of Clifford Allison and Neil Bonnet before they even considered developing a safer car. And their concern about the HANS device and SAFER barriers didn't even surface until it was too late for Dale Earnhardt, Kenny Irwin, Jr, and Adam Petty.
Even though the new Sprint Cup car is much safer than the older car--and probably saved the life of Jeff Gordon last Sunday, and prevented serious injury to him and Tony Stewart, who also suffered a hard hit--there are still many tracks, including the majority of tracks owned by ISC, that do not have SAFER barriers all around, especially where most needed around the emergency access points.
Testing at Texas would be a safety measure, not a competition measure, and NASCAR should reconsider its denial of Gossage's proposal if they really want to prevent bad accidents in the Samsung 500.
Perhaps they don't. Perhaps they somehow feel that the best way to draw the fans is through morbid curiousity.
I know some people find crashes thrilling, but those who do are very, very far from a majority among NASCAR race fans. Maybe I am an idealist, but I like to think that most of us are there for the thrill of the race itself.
Does NASCAR realize this, or are they just hoping for a wreckfest?
I would like to think otherwise, that they really do want to present a good product for the fans--that would be good racing--as they have so far this season. They should not use the safer cars and safety devices as an excuse to promote more wrecks, because any fans they gain in that way would not be real fans, and will not stick around long before going back to their WWE matches.
Gossage offered to have the test the Wednesday before the Samsung 500, or on Thursday, the next day, during scheduled race week activities. That would not seriously disrupt anyone's schedule, and NASCAR should take the offer seriously, instead of precipitously brushing it off as they have initially.

Facing the Facts--Again

There are three absolutes we NASCAR fans have to accept after this weekend:
1) NHIS (now NHMS) will be reconfigured
2) Kentucky Speedway will never get a Cup date
3) Jimmie Johnson is the 2007 NASCAR Nextel Cup Champion.
Now, you may argue about #3, but after Sunday's Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, Johnson seems unstoppable. Sure, Jeff Gordon is only thirty points behind, but how can you stop a guy who seems as though he is going to win no matter what.
Each time Matt Kenseth took the lead during the race, he checked out on the rest of the field. Except for when the #48 team decided it was time to go.
During the caution with 37 laps to go, Kenseth's #17 team took two tires for track position, while the #48 team took for. After the restart, Kenseth again took the lead and took off like a rocket. Speaking of Rockets, Ryan Newman was soon running in second place. We all know how hungry he was for a win. But with 11 laps to go, Johnson passed Newman as if he wasn't there. And with nine laps to go he had caught Kenseth.
And boys 'n' girls, did that race peg the wow meter! For nine laps, the #17 and #48 raced as hard as we have ever seen a race. They were taking the turns as if they were on a dirt track, going sideways like winged sprints, and side by side at that.
At one point, Johnson got Kenseth real loose, but Kenseth is better than good, because he saved it and held the lead. But every time we thought it was over, and that Johnson wouldn't be able to pass Kenseth, he came back again, even stronger. Finally, with two laps left to go, Johnson passed Kenseth and cleared him. That, folks, was the fat lady singing.
So, I ask, if a driver as great as Matt Kenseth can't beat Johnson in a race like that, how in the world could a driver as great as Gordon do it.
Johnson is destined to win the championship. Do you want proof? Except for my kind of sort of pick of Greg Biffle at Kansas, every pick I have made this season until now has resulted in disaster for the driver I picked. This time, I picked Johnson, a driver of whom I am not a fan, though I like him, and he broke the curse. Now, how is anybody going to beat a driver like that?
Update: Paul McMahon, the driver of the TSR #20 who was involved in a horrific accident at the WoO Finals earlier this weekend, was held in a hospital in Charlotte for observation and released. He is okay.

The Weekend so far...

The main event hasn't even happened yet, and we have already seen some great racing this weekend, as well as some big news.
The Craftsman Truck Series race, Friday night, lived up to everything for which it was billed. There was plenty of action, the points lead changed again, this time drastically, and we got to see some good racing from both the veterans and the up-and-comers. The drama was definitely there. Mike Skinner now has a comfortable 57 points lead, in spite of narrowly escaping disaster in the closing laps of the race. Chad McCumbee made a bonsai move and tood the lead, but it caused some problems behind him, bringing out a caution. When he spun his tires on the restart, then tried to block--a rookie mistake--there was a big pile up behind him that included the points frontrunners, Skinner and Hornaday. Mike Skinner's damage was relatively minor, and he managed to get the necessary repairs done, and finish third, while Ron Hornaday's damage was serious, and his crew worked heroically to get his truck back on the track in time to get an eighteenth place finish. That's the kind of drama the CTS brings us on a regular basis, and that is why we think that CTS is "the Bomb." The big news in the CTS is that Jack Sprague will be joining Ron Hornaday as team mates for Kevin Harvick Incorperated in 2008. Now that's a powerhouse.
The Busch Series race also had its moments. Smoke led most of the race in a car that looked like it couldn't be beat. Well, the paint scheme could, but that's a different story. An early crash involving Mike Bliss, Jeremy Clements, and the #27 car, resulted in some very bad pit stops. Schrub's crew wasn't ready, and the delays and flub ups forced him to take two tires when he wanted four. Smoke's pit stop was also slow. Somehow, a few laps into green, Kyle Busch was in the lead, which didn't last for long, because Smoke moved up quickly on four fresh tires and easily retook the lead.
Stewart subsequently checked out, and began passing lapped traffic, until he ran into the back of Kyle Krisiloff's car. It was a racing incident, Smoke took the brunt of the damage, and had to pit to repair a hole in the "headlight area." This put him quite far back in the field. He made up positions until he got to seventh place, then apparently decided he had used as much of the car as he could, finishing in that position.
It seems that everybody who took the lead checked out. In the end, there were only 14 drivers on the lead lap, as Kevin Harvick took the checkers, with a petulant, but persistant, Schrub in second.
The big news in the NBS: Brad Keselowski finished highest among the Busch regulars-- which is good, because he is only part time--with a sixth place finish. He is showing that he deserves the recognition he has received from his boss at JMS. Bigger news: Michael McDowell ran his first Busch race for MWR. Even Bigger news: ESPN ignored the fact completely. Well, not that much bigger. Par for the course, actually.
Oh yeah, there was something about Carl Edwards winning the NBS Championship.
The winner so far this weekend: Dirt racing fans who watch Speed TV. Thanks to Bruton Smith, Speed TV, Humpy Wheeler, and WoO for such a great presentation of a great sport. I could actually smell the mud and taste the dirt in my beer. The Big News from WoO--Tony Stewart Racing (TSR) will have a powerhouse next year with Donny Schatz and Kraig Kinser on the same team.
On a serious note: Paul McMahan, current driver of the #20 TSR winged sprint car was injured by a freak accident involving the drive shaft of the car. Our thoughts and prayers are with him for a quick and complete recovery.
So now, we are primed for the Dickies 500. Here's to another great race.

On To Texas

My little sister, who was born in Fort Worth and lives in TexArkana, pronounces it "Teyaxes," which gives her a really cute drawl indiginous to that part of the country. I just thought I'd say that because it has nothing to do with Sunday's Dickies 500.
Nor does the fact that Bruton Smith has purchased New Hampshire International Speedway have anything to do with Sunday's race. Burton owns TMS, AMS, LVMS, LMS, Bristol, and one or two others I can't think of right now, and he wants to add a second race to Vegas. Personally, I don't think that Smith will pull a race from New Hampshire to move to Vegas, as long as that race sells out. With the races at Atlanta and Texas failing to sell out, he may try to move either the second race at Atlanta or Texas to Las Vegas in 2009.
As far as Loudon (NHIS) goes, we know he is going to reconfigure it. Which is fine by me, because, as much as I like the tracks that are 1 mile or less, NHIS has the worst racing of these. It is like two 1/4 mile drag strips with turnarounds at each end. Not that we would want to see him configure it to another 1.5 mile tri- or quad-oval, but maybe shorten the straightaways and widen the turns so it would be more like Milwaukee or Nashville. Mr Smith, if you are reading this (fat chance!) please consider my suggestion.
That being said, the closest I have come to accuracy in my predictions was at Kansas, after I picked Greg Biffle to be the non-chaser most likely to win the race, and he did. In one of the strangest finishes ever. Otherwise, everything I have predicted results in the opposite taking place.
Since my favorite driver can not logically be considered to be "in the Chase," we could say that the pressure is off, and he can get back to having fun, and maybe even throw a wrench into the works and win one. But that is not my pick.
With my terrible record of picking the winner, I will predict that Jimmie Johnson will win the race with Jeff Gordon close on his bumper. In fact, it should be a near tie. Of course, this is just in hopes that the points between the top three stay close until the very last race at Homestead.
So here's looking forward to a wild, entertaining, and, possibly, very wierd race at TMS. Yeehaw!

Rootin' and Tootin' Time in Texas

Photo Credit: The Dallas Page.com
Grab your hats, belts, and boots, pard'ners, it's Teyxas time agin'! The ultra-fast, medium sized (1.5 mile) Texas Motor Speedway promises the same kind of excitement we've seen at Atlanta and Las Vegas.
With twelve different winners in twelve different races, there isn't a single driver who has been consistently dominant at TMS. As we have seen in the past, anything can happen. Though it is always fun to predict a winner, this is one of the more difficult tracks for which to do so.
The odds that there won't be a repeat winner at TMS get smaller with every first-time winner there, but with twelve different winners, we can still safely assume that Sunday's winner could be someone who hasn't yet seen Victory Lane in Texas. Since Jeff Gordon has a mental block against TMS,. we can safely assume that he won't be the one we are looking for to take the checkers, Sunday. He absolutely hates the track, which features abrupt transitions between the 24 degree banked turns, and the five degree banked straightaways, definitely a challenge to even the most experienced drivers. Jimmie Johnson has a slightly better chance, as he is on a hot streak, and has come close to winning there before. Of the Rick Hendrick drivers, Kyle Busch is the best prospect to pick as winner, for he doesn't seem to care what the track conditions are. He will drive his usual style--wide open throttle, dodge the traffic, and hope those in front get out of the way--and, for him, his usual style could be the formula for victory.
Bobby Labonte could surprise us all and score a victory for Petty Enterprises. Drivers seem to perform better at their home tracks, but the very talented driver from Texas has yet to score a victory there. He is determined to win in his home state, and determination in the psyche of a competent driver can overcome the odds against him. Our hearts are saying “Go, Bobby, Go!” for he has gone way too long without a Cup level victory, but our minds are saying "What!?!"
Personally, I think the winner will come from the Childress stable, particularly Jeff Burton or Clint Bowyer. Burton is at the top of his game, and getting better, while Bowyer has climbed to the top of the list of Drivers Most Likely to Get Their First Career Cup Victory This Year, seventh in championship points after six races.
We should never underestimate Denny Hamlin, however. Whatever keeps that guy from winning doesn’t seem to be that big of a problem. Hamlin is sure to be one of the top all time NASCAR drivers not too far in the future.
Of course, there is always the increasing chance that somebody will be the first repeat winner in Texas. Based on performance, so far this year, the drivers most likely to get a second win at TMS would be Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, or Matt Kenseth. Smoke has overcome an early season setback at Daytona to climb to eight in points, while Matt The Brat has been a regular among the top ten finishers. The Acrobat, Carl Edwards is working his way to a Cup win, and he seems to be overcoming the setbacks he has had since last season.
Tell yew what, it's going to be a good and exciting race, Sunday, and we will, yet again, be satisfied that our favorite sport is the best when it comes to thrills and drama.