NASCAR Weekend Review-Just some thoughts

Once again we held our breaths as a car hit the wall hard, this time causing an explosion, and tearing the sheet metal off of the left side of the car. In the NASCAR Busch Series race at Kentucky, Jeff Fuller seemed to run full speed into the inside wall. It seemed to take too long to get the driver out of the car, and when he was finally extracted, he was placed on a gurney. There was a tentative sigh of relief, as we realized that he was moving. As it turned out, Fuller was treated for smoke inhalation at the hospital and released, Sunday. Once again, we give thanks for the safety features implemented in what is, understandably, a potentially deadly sport. Still, we watch, and it is not morbid curiousity that makes us watch. We enjoy the speed, the competition, and the intensity on the part of the drivers. We know that it takes more than everyday integrity and motivation to do what our favorite drivers do every week. What we do know about these drivers is that it is not a death-wish, nor is it self-destructiveness that motivates their desire to race; it is, rather, an extraordinary love of the sensation of speed, and the desire to compete at those speeds. Their drive and determination maintain a nearly superhuman quality common mankind can only imagine. So we watch, fascinated by the relationship of a man or woman and the machine, the skills and reaction level of these drivers, and their bravery.
Meanwhile, David Gilliland, relatively unknown to most fans, mentored by the sorely missed Jerry Nadeau, went on to win the race, being the first non-Cup driver to win an NBS race this season. This is a great tribute to the talent of the up and coming drivers, and to the practice of allowing Cup drivers to race in the "minor league" series. Post race, the 30 year old Gilliland credited the so-called "Buschwhackers," saying, "they help me race better."
This was, in a way, a victory for the long absent Nadeau. Jerry Nadeau, a competent and somewhat popular driver, was seriously injured in a 2001 accident which left him partially paralyzed. Unable to race, he did not distance himself from racing. Instead, he kept himself as close to the sport as practical, coaching drivers, training drivers, and being involved in the design of safety equipment. As Gilliland's coach, the victory was, for Nadeau, almost as if he had driven the car himself.

Kasey Kahne is now the winningest driver in the NASCAR Nextel Cup series this season, with four victories. Nobody doubted his ability, for every other driver has expressed unmitigated confidence that the "cute little guy" is, indeed, a highly capable, championship quality driver. What was questioned was the ability of the car, the NASCAR fascimile of the Dodge Charger. Many insiders felt as though the Charger was poorly designed for the style and competitive level of NASCAR Cup racing. Kahne has, at most, belied that speculation and, at least, proven to the rest of us that he is a racer of the topmost quality.
My top-ten picks were sadly off this weekend, with my favorite, and my pick for victory, Tony Stewart, being taken out of the race early in an accident not of his doing. Much to his credit, the "old" hot-tempered Stewart did not emerge from the wrecked car. Instead of placing blame on Jeff Green, whose car had gotten loose and hit the #20 car, he relegated the incident to just "one of those things that happens when you race."
In my mind, I usually place an asterisk by a win in a rain shortened race, but this was a hard pitched battle, and a well run race. Sure it was pit position and strategy that had a large part to do with winning--many of the teams counted on a rain-out in their planning. Still it was a race and very worthy of the term.
Jeff Gordon even complained about having to race his team mate. I won't dwell on it, but here is the article from Scene Daily. It doesn't surprise me
Many of my pre-race top ten picks were virtually no-shows, but that doesn't matter. If nothing else, I am a race fan, and the race was every bit as exciting as I had anticipated. I have to admit, though I suck, lately, for picking winners, my enjoyment of racing is not even minutely diminished.
Next week is the road-course race at Infineon (formerly Sears Point) Raceway. I am very much looking forward to it, anticipating more excellence in yet another aspect of the skills of these drivers. And I know I will enjoy, immensely, watching the race..

Preview for Michigan

In past years, the races at the two-mile flat ovals of California and Michigan have been fairly mediocre at best, but lately, with the competition as great as it is, they have become something to look forward to. Where the races were once a long string of cars parading single-file all the way around the huge ovals, now it is guaranteed that there will be wheel to wheel racing throughout the field and throughout the race. This has been an extraordinary season for racing, so far this season, and the Michigan 400 will not be a disappointment.
Greg Biffle will attempt to repeat his feat of last year, and Tony Stewart will do everything he can to avoid repeating his disappointing second place finish of last year. That alone will demonstrate some excellent racing. Both drivers are very determined and aggressive, both teams have been producing very capable cars, and the finish will be determined by skill and experience, which means Smoke will take the checkered flag. This time, I am not picking Stewart because he is my favorite driver, but because when he shows the kind of attitude he has shown since his shoulder injury, he usually wins. Knock on wood, discounting any accidents, temper tantrums, or mechanical problems, the Home Depot team will see victory Sunday.
It is almost too easy to predict the top five in this race. These guys are pretty consistant, and there should be little change at Michigan. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle "The Shrub" Busch, and the driver whose name I don't mention for fear of changing his luck (I'm really not superstitious, but I won't take any chances) will continue their performance and fill out the top five. Johnson may be a favorite to win, but we are picking Smoke, because, head to head, Stewart finesses the talented but less experienced Johnson. Shrub, however, is the kind of kid who will want to get involved in the intense race between the #16 and the #20, which we hope he doesn't get a chance to. If he does succeed in getting involved, we would more than likely see three or more, wrecked cars and Shrub crying, "I don't know that I did anything wrong!"
Gee, am I always this pesimistic? I'm not trying to be down on anybody, this is just my way of expressing my love of the sport, and my anticipation of some really good stuff on track. This is what racing is, no restrictor plates, wide, relatively flat turns, and long, wide open straightaways.
It may be a surprise to some, but Brian Vickers is auditioning. He is a capable driver, and is on a roll. Historically, though he has no wins, he does well at Michigan, and, if he doesn't over extend his talent, he should get a top ten, if not a top five. I would like to see him beat Jimmie Johnson, in a head to head race, but, in a contact situation, Johnson would prevail. Well, we don't know that for sure, it is only a matter of opinion.
Might as well pick all three of the Gibbs cars to finish in the top ten. Hamlin is almost a no-brainer--if I'm not mistaken, he had a top twelve finish at California. I don't think there is a single race fan who will deny that NASCAR's new Boy Wonder is a shoo in for a top ten at Michigan. Yeley is another story, with his tendency to wrecklessness, but he is learning, and he is also capable of getting a top ten at this kind of track. Besides, those Gibbs cars are good, darn good. If JJ Yeley can stay focused, he can turn a good starting position into at least a top ten finish.
Joe Nemechek? Why not. The #01 team has had half a season to pull its stuff together, and no one can deny that this very steady driver has the ability to do well at Michigan. If he has the determination, which he should have by now, he can get a top ten. It is only a question of the HMS power plant being able to stand up to the driver in this kind of race. Nemechek is my Cloudy Revelation Ball dark horse for a top ten at Michigan.
Of course we can't have a top ten without the man from Batesville, Arkansas.I hope this race is as good as I think it will be. Time to go racing!

1. #20 Tony Stewart
2. You Know Who
3. #16 Greg Biffle
4. #48 Jimmie Johnson
5. # 5 Kyle Busch
6. #25 Brian Vickers
7. #6 Mark Martin
8. # 11 Denny Hamlin
9. #01 Joe Nemecheck
10. #18 JJ Yeley

There is not enough room in the top ten to pick twelve drivers, but I would also like to pick Kasey Kahne, and Scott Riggs. I have a personal interest in seeing Riggs do this season. I bet on him to be one of the top drivers, when he was in the Truck Series.

But Seriously, Folks...

Seriously, I shall not, ever again, underestimate Denny Hamlin. I think I already knew better than that, and the error of my ways was brought to my attention long before the start of Sundays race, when Denny took the pole. Then, watching the NBS race at Nashville, in the closing laps, I was astounded at the moves young Hamlin was putting on none other than Kevin Harvick in a battle for second. It was then that I realized that I had not merely underestimated the young driver from Virginia, but I had seriously misjudged him. Honestly, I should have known better. The accomplishment of Denny Hamlin, Mike Ford, and the entire Fed Ex team was no less than incredible.

I was actually relieved to see Jeff Gordon climb out of that car, as I am sure most of us race fans were. That was a scary wreck. I don't like Gordon, but I would never wish harm on anybody in any race car. His composure almost surprised me, but we can't forget that, even while he is active, is a genuine legend among NASCAR drivers.

I don't know what it is going to take for a Yates driver to get a win. Jarrett and Sadler are both excellent, highly skilled drivers. And it can't be the engineering--both Robert and Doug Yates are highly accomplished engineers--and both are hands on in the design of the cars and the engines. That leaves only one explanation, and its not a very good one. Bad Luck.

Another realization struck me Saturday, as the drivers were traveling from the practice at Pocono to the NBS race at Nashville. I get really nervous when these guys travel. It used to make me nervous when Tony Stewart or Robby Gordon traveled between Indianapolis and Charlotte to run both races, too. The relief when they arrive safely is incredible. I think it is that Davey Allison’s death in a helicopter crash back in 1993 hit me so hard. I hope I am always able to breath a sigh of relief every week these guys travel.

"The Smoke Factor is back."
That is what Tony Stewart told his team, feeling comfortable with his injured shoulder, his car, and his driving ability. Last year, at Michigan, he was very disappointed in his second place finish. I think he is ready to win there next week. If his performance is as good as it was Sunday, he more than likely would. He got his 100th top five finish in his eighth year in Cup racing, which is quite a guage of his ability. He showed little sign of having a fractured scapula, and his performance was summed up by this quote by one of the Fox commentators:
"Smoke at 80% is better than 50% of the other drivers."
I think it was DW who said that, and I couldn't think of a more accurate assessment of Stewart's ability.

Pocono 500 picks

I really like Pocono. The "roaval," part road course, part oval speedway, as it is called, consistantly provides the race fan with exciting flag to flag racing. CRB (Cloudy Revelation Ball), however, does not like it. CRB considers the races at this unique raceway a "wild card."
Listen up, Candyman, and fans of the Yates #38 team, this is your chance to change your luck! CRB has ordered Elliott Sadler to win this race! Yates produces the most powerful engine on the track, and the Ford Fusion has proven itself a viable all-purpose package. The Candyman is an excellent all-purpose driver, and really needs to be able to show his stuff. The Candyman can do it.

Okay, Babs, I have repeated "Candyman" three times. In the strange universe of Luck and Fate, with its strange and obscure rules, this just might work!

I like the chances for Bobby Labonte. The #43 team has shown much potential for success so far this season, and Labonte is one of those drivers who has a handle on Pocono. If the Everham engine holds up, and Labonte's ability is not interfered with, Petty Racing may get its first victory this year. The #43 team is gelling, the talent and the determination are there, and the combination should be the formula for success at Pocono. CRB is clapping its flippers, wagging its tail, flapping its wings, and grinning, so this may a good pick. You never know.
Dale Jarrett is a seasoned veteran at this track, and has been somewhat successful here. He may, however, be seen as a "lame duck," already having announced his plans to leave Yates (note to RYR: GET VICKERS!). Yet Jarrett is a serious racer, and his drive to win, his love for racing, his tremendous talent, and his experience should overcome any urge to not give a scheiss.
Tony Stewart will be driving the entire event, practice sessions, qualifying, and the race. I don't have a whole lot of hope for him going 200 laps at Pocono without his injury bothering him, but he has done so well when injured before. So to Tony, I say "Oh Hell Yeah!." Let's get behind him Smoke fans. Wendy and Clance, and Tina Renee, and all the wonderful Smoke fans at the Nascar.com forums, let's hear it:

HELL YEAH!!!

Whew! That was exciting.

Now that we're fired up, we should see who else we think will do well at the Pennsylvania 400. As much as I want to have faith in the JGR rookies, who are very good, I don't think that either JJ Yeley or Denny Hamlin are quite ready for this track. One rookie who may be very good would be Martin Truex, Jr. He has shown some brilliance at difficult tracks, even at his first attempts. He seems to have the right kind of attitude, and, even though we haven't mentioned him much on this blog, I do like him. Without much more to go on than optimistic speculation, which, by the way, is the norm for this blog, I think Truex may finish ahead of the other rookies at this race.
Smartass of the race will not, for once, be Kyle Busch. It will be his brother, Boo Bait Busch, in the Penske South #2 Miller Light car. Not to say Shrub won't be a smartass, just that big brother Busch will do better, both at being a smartass, and negotiating the roaval. Experience counts. I don't have any doubts about the ability of the #2 team, but I do lack some faith in the equipment. I am being very brave in saying this, because I am sure that Roger Penske knows where I live. If I get "disappeared," well, I just asked for it.
I want to see Ryan Newman do well here. I don't know why, because he is not one of my favorites, but neither is he one of the drivers I don't like. Maybe The Captain won't send his goons after me if I pick The Rocket to get a top ten finish.
We cannot leave out Robby Gordon. This guy is beyond hungry, he is absolutely feral. Still, he has enough of a head on his shoulders to be expert at running the roaval. I like to watch him race at Pocono, for his style is exciting, if not sometimes dangerous. Being feral may sometimes cause him to do some uncivilized things, but the importance of keeping his cool, not forgetting what he is capable of , and being able to finish in order to win is not lost on him. Not being a dummy will be instrumental in getting a top ten finish for America's Top Underdog.
We always pick Mark Martin to get a top ten finish. There is no reason not to, and no explaination or analysis is needed here.
In keeping on the same roll that mirrors a certain driver's success, I will not mention the name of the Roush driver who will fill out the top ten. Nor will I actively pick him. The former Winston Cup Champ will be there. If you are still curious as to who "Not to Mention" is, click here.
Gosh, I picked neither Jeff Gordon, nor Jimmy Johnson. Is that good or bad? I just don't think this is an HMS kind of track. They may take some drivers out, but I don't think they will have the car to finish in the top ten.
I promise I won't forget Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

I hope that the Pennsylvania 400 will be as exciting as we expect it to be. Long Pond is always something to look forward to.

1. #38 Elliott Sadler
2. #43 Bobby Labonte
3. #1 Martin Truex, Jr
4. Not to Mention
5. #20 Tony Stewart
6 #12 Ryan Newman
7. #6 Mark Martin
8. #88 Dale Jarrett
9. #2 Kurt Busch
10, #7 Robby Gordon

Playing Injured

I found this article on ABC news on-line, dealing with drivers playing hurt. It offers some suggestions, but I sort of like the way DW talked about it last Sunday. Why not just have a "permission slip" from a doctor to miss a race. With the driver as the declared entrant for the car, a substitute driver may be used if the primary driver is injured, and I mean, for the entire event. No having to start a race. The points the substitute driver gets would still be awarded to the primary driver. What do y'all think?

If I Must...

I must realize, when I post my race previews, that there are some highly talented drivers out there, whom I seem to be forgetting about.
I don't mean to forget about Dale Earnhardt, Jr. He is extremely talented, and he continues to prove it every week. I just don't think his cars are quite up to snuff, yet. Jr realizes that he is not his father, but I would like to see him get just a little more aggressive, rather than apologizing for every time his car slides a little. He has a great attitude, just needs to apply it a little differently.
If I must mention Jeff Gordon again, well, he is not one of my favorites, but I do feel that he has a win coming. His erratic success, so far this season, has made it difficult to tell if he is on his way up or down. I still feel that win somewhere down the line, but when or where, I can't tell. I want to see both Jeff and Smoke in good form for Sonoma (heal fast, Tony) in two weeks, because I have to see that race between those two.
I must mention Jeff Burton. I thought it was to be Harvick who would put RCR back on the map, but Jeff is doing a pretty good job of it. I realized, last year, when Burton transferred to Childress Racing, that it was a good move for them both, and Burton has definitely shown that he is still an up and coming driver, not a has-been. Either Harvick or Burton could conceivably be the next Champion.
Finally, I must remember to not pick the last Winston Cup Champ for a top ten finish in my race previews, but to pick him in my fantasy games. That seems to be successful.

I want to add a link to a very interesting article from Jackson Sun on-line, about some stats on past NASCAR champions. It is very well worth the read.

The Monster Mile

I poked fun at Jeff Gordon last week, so now I'm done with that. In fact, I am picking Jeff Gordon to win at Dover this weekend. Why would I do that? I have never accused Gordon of not being an exceptional driver. It was fairly obvious, from the beginning of the 2006 season, that all the #24 team needed was some experience working together, and some adjustments to get the handling combination to a point where Gordon could feel comfortable. I think Gordon is feeling comfortable in the car now, and, with his skill and experience at the Monster Mile, he should be able to see Victory Lane.
Gordon has three team mates who could cause him some trouble. Jimmie Johnson holds a comfortable lead in championship, and will more than likely run a supporting role for his mentor and car owner. But Brian Vickers is very hungry for a win, and is in a very good car this weekend. If he can avoid wrecks, and if he doesn't run over somebody who would retaliate, he stands a chance of putting some real pressure on the #24 team. Then, there is "Rowdy" Kyle "Shrub" Busch who is a loose cannon, but a talented loose cannon. He probably would care who's team the #24 team is on if that car is in the way of a win. One would think that Shrub would be a little more careful, after recieving a fine and points deductions, but this is Shrub we're talking about here. He has to get someone angry at him, so he can be angry as well. As I said, loose cannon.
I think Ryan Newman can change his luck, as Greg Biffle already has. Biffle, last year's winner, can get a top 5 finish, and Newman will finish somewhere in the top ten, if only it is a good track for him. With both Kasey Kahne and Scott Riggs on a roll, Everham should be able to put two Dodges in the top ten.
Robby Gordon is pulling double duty this weekend--at Dover, and at the Baja 500. He usually does well pulling double duty, and will win one of the races, most likely the Baja. But his adreniline level will be up, and he is another pick for the top ten at Dover.
I can't pick 10 without putting Mark Martin in there.
Finally, I'm picking Denny Hamlin, just because I know he can do it.
This, then, is our proposed finishing order:
1. #24 Jeff Gordon
2. #16 Greg Biffle
3. #9 Kasey Kahne
4. #25 Brian Vickers
5. #5 Kyle Busch
6. #7 Robby Gordon
7. #48 Jimmie Johnson
8. #10 Scott Riggs
9. #6 Mark Martin
10. #11 Denny Hamlin.

Now, a word about the #20 team. Tony Stewart has to be very careful not to get caught up in anything which may add to his injury. He will have to start in the back, because Rudd will be doing the qualifying, and no matter what position Ricky gets, the driver change at the start will put the #20 car in the back. Rudd, a four time winner at Dover, is a very good choice for substitute, but the driver change, ideally at the first caution, should keep the car behind, but hopefully not a lap down. As much as I hate it, I do not see a top ten finish for Stewart/Rudd this weekend. Let's hope for an early caution.