Jack's House

I will take back what I wrote about bad luck not sticking to my favorite driver. It seems like it has. Hopefully, that won't happen this weekend, as Tony Stewart has pledged his winnings from Michigan International Speedway to the Red Cross for flood relief efforts in the Midwest.

But let's not make this post about Smoke. Instead let's talk about The Guy who, from all reports, should win the Life Lock 400, Sunday. That would be Carl Edwards.

If Lowe's Motor Speedway is, or has been, The House of Hendrick, then MIS would be the House of Roush. The Roush-Yates engines seem to be custom designed for the 2 mile intermediate class track, and, as he did at the most recent MIS race, and at California earlier this year, Edwards should be able to put that engine to good use and dominate the race.

Though MIS is similar to the Auto Club Speedway, in Fontana, CA, there are some major differences in the characteristics. ACS isn't a multiple groove track like MIS, and passing is much harder at California than it is at Michigan. This should actually work to Edward's advantage, as he is a driver who will find the best line for his techniques, and there are many more choices for him at MIS than at California.

If it isn't a backflip we see in victory celebration Sunday, it could be the competition winning burn out by Greg Biffle. He has been very strong this season, often just a breath or a lugnut away from victory. Matt Kenseth has been strong as well, with four top ten finishes in the last four races. He could easily enter the top twelve this weekend, while only a month ago, many writers and bloggers were willing to give up hope of Matt The Bratt making it into the Chase. Nor can we rule out David Ragan who seems to be on the verge of racking up his first win. These are all Roush-Fenway teams, and they all have excellent records at MIS.

If, by some weird act of Fate it isn't a Roush-Fenway car that wins Sunday, we should look at the Dodges, particularly those of Gillett-Evernham Motorsports and Penske Racing. You may remember way back to Speedweeks last February, when Jack Roush waved around numbers from dyno testing of the different manufacturers' cars and claimed that the Toyotas had more horsepower than Ford or Chevy. Ryan Newman looked at the numbers and said, "we've got that kind of horsepower," then figuratively clapped his hand over his mouth, thinking, "Was I supposed to say that?"

While Roush complained about unfair advantage, and the Chevy teams said "we have more work to do," Newman and his Dodge won the Daytona 500. NASCAR, incidentally, denied that any team had a significant horsepower advantage over another.

Horsepower advantage or not, Kasey Kahne and the GEM #9 team have been on a roll since winning the All Star race, and he is liking Victory Lane. There is no reason to believe that he won't run well again Sunday. The Dodge teams hold their cards close to their chests and we don't hear much from them during practice and qualifying, but, somehow, that seems to mean they have something to show the other teams.

Before we close, and just for fun, let's have an imaginary shoot-out between Carl Edwards and the driver who I think is the most similar in terms of talent and technique, Denny Hamlin. Twenty laps at O'Reilly Motorsports Park, Edwards and Hamlin in identically prepared cars, and racing one on one.

Both drivers like to find a line where they feel most comfortable and stick to it. Edwards is slightly better at car control than Hamlin, but Hamlin is just a wee bit gutsier going into the turns. Both drivers like to slide around the corners to give themselves the straightest route for exiting the turns. Carl Edwards is barely more popular than Kyle Busch, by one or two fans, while Hamlin is slightly less popular, which is hard to do since Busch has only eleven or twelve fans (counting me).

Both Edwards and Hamlin have a reputation of acting out their tempers, and both have been known to use their cars as retaliatory weapons. With that in mind we begin our fantasy shootout.

Edwards takes an early lead, but Hamlin follows Edwards closely and matches the exact line Edwards is taking. Around lap ten Hamlin tries to go around Edwards on the outside of turn 2, but Edwards moves up to block him, giving Hamlin the inside at turn 3. Edwards moves down, but Hamlin gets him lose and completes the pass. Edwards retaliates and bumps Hamlin hard in turn 1. Hamlin moves up the track, and as Edwards gets along side him, Hamlin smashes his car into Edwards' right-side door panel. Edwards gets even angrier and smashes back. This goes on for another lap or two, with the anger of both drivers escalating. By lap fourteen, each is more intent on wrecking the other than in winning the race, and, finally, they hit each other so hard they both wreck. Nobody wins. The moral? Don't let your anger get the best of you.

2 Questions you don't want to ask me...

...but I will ask them and answer them anyway, after this disclaimer: The following are hypothetical questions, and, therefore, so are the answers.

Will Tony Stewart leave JGR to own a Cup team?

No. The ownership offers presented to Stewart so far this season have been contingent on Stewart leaving JGR after this year, which doesn't seem to be happening. As recently as last Saturday afternoon, Stewart said, "We were never considering leaving (Gibbs.)"
Joe Gibbs is all about teamwork, and since both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch have both recently stated that Smoke's experience and expertise is very important to the team ("as long as you do what Tony says, and not as he does," Hamlin quipped) it seems that Gibbs would be inclined to keep that team together. The ball seems to be in the team's court as far as what happens after 2009. With Joey Logano's entry into the Cup being highly anticipated, Smoke's future with the team will depend on the answers to several questions: Will Logano be immediately successful in NASCAR's big leagues? Will JGR want to run three or four cars/teams in 2010? And, can Tony Stewart still win races and/or championships with JGR? The contract signing seems to have reached a standstill until some or all of the above questions can be answered.

What will happen to make Jr Nation forget about Kyle Busch?

For the answer, let's imagine the closing laps of an upcoming race at an intermediate track: Neither Dale Earnhardt, Jr nor Jeff Gordon has won a race yet this season. Dale Jr has been running in the lead for several laps, but Gordon has been charging quickly up through the field. The fans are on their feet going crazy! Jr takes the white flag as Gordon comes up on his tail. Entering turn one, Jr, who has been running near the top, takes the lower line to block Gordon's faster car. Gordon moves up, Earnhardt moves up, exiting turn two now. Turn three, both cars take the lower line again, but this time, Gordon touches the rear bumper of Earnhardt's car. Jr spins! Gordon wins! Kyle who?

Looking forward to Richmond

There is no mistaking that our favorite races on the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit take place at the tracks that are 1.36 miles in length or shorter. There are no "cookie cutters" here--every track is unique.

This group includes Darlington, Richmond, Bristol, Loudon, Dover, Martinsville, Phoenix, and Richmond. It is very difficult to pick a favorite out of these, but mine is Richmond. The frontstretch, with its long, 8 degree banked curve, and long turns with 14 degree banking at each end of the straightaways, make for some very interesting racing. Like most short tracks, it usually features plenty of bumpin' and bangin' while at the same time offering multiple grooves and side by side racing. Like most short track racing, the Dan Lowry 400 at Richmond will focus on drivers skills and guts.

Denny Hamlin is on a tear. Out of the last seven races this year, he has posted six top ten finishes, including five top fives and one win. That win was at the other Virginia short track, Martinsville, and there is no doubt that he could make it two for two in his home state.

He won't do it without some competition. There are several other drivers who consider Richmond their favorite track, and have records to prove it. Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt, Jr each have three wins at the track, and Kyle Busch has only finished outside of the top five in one out of six races there. Jimmie Johnson swept both Richmond last year, and Kevin Harvick has the top driver rating* at Richmond with a 121.2

*Driver Rating : Formula combining the following categories: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race. (Racing One.com)

We can't overlook Mark Martin here, either, because he has 23 top ten finishes at Richmond, the most of any current driver. Ryan Newman, however has the best finishing average of all drivers who have raced in every Cup race at Richmond since 2002.

So the competition is going to be tough, the action fast paced, and the racing hard. There should be plenty of green flag racing, since there is some passing room there, but there will also be times when the traffic is thick, and mistakes will be made.

I'm guessing a JGR sweep of the top three places this week. All three drivers have the guts and aggressiveness it takes to win at a track like Richmond, and they arguably have the best cars in the field.

But then, the beauty of short track racing is that anybody can win.

Martinsville: Blogging "live on type delay"

By the time the Goody's 500 has reached the one-quarter point, I have already rediscovered how much fun watching a short track race can be, even on television. The position changes happen just as often and drastically as they do in restricter-plate races, but even better, since a mishap doesn't necessarily knock a car out of the race.
For example, early in the race the Busch brothers already had a run-in (love it!) involving direct contact and spinouts, but many of the cars caught up in that altercation--including Jeff Gordon--are making their way up to the front.
We also have already been able to see an excellent display of car control, on the part of Dale Earnhardt, Jr., as he passed Jimmie Johnson in traffic. This brings three things to mind; anti-Jr fans will always fail to realize what a great car control driver he is; lapped traffic is part of the excitement of Martinsville; and, I have somehow become an anti-Johnson fan, even though the driver never fails to impress me. I cheer for anybody who passes the reigning champ, even Jeff Gordon when he passed Johnson later in the race.
And by lap 294, I am cheering wildly as Jeff Gordon and Earnhardt are racing wheel to wheel for the lead, but an incident involving Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle brings out the fourteenth caution, not before Earnhardt takes the lead.
Now, I am not normally a fan of caution-filled wreckfests, but this is Martinsville, and old school as in Saturday night circle burners, and this is to be expected. Besides, the wrecks seem to have little effect on the driving ability and winning potential of many of the drivers who have been involved in wrecks. The wrecks and cautions, therefore, are part of the Martinsville experience.
While on the asides, a note to my favorite Kenseth fan, Babs, I didn't mention the driver of the #17 car by name in my preview, for fear of jinxing him again, but when your driver is having such back luck anyway, perhaps a jinx would have had positive effect. I really like Matt, and I am determined to see him do well, but this is just not his day. When Matt loses his temper, you know something is seriously wrong.
By lap 320 I have stopped writing, because that is difficult to do while I am on my feet and nervously pacing in front of the television, with a mixture of nervousness and elation, as my favorite driver moves into fourth position. The nervousness shows its reason for being there as, on the caution that shortly follows, Stewart gives up that position to pit. We are now at that point of the race where all we can do is hope that nothing bad happens, and maintain confidence that Stewart can work his way back to the top section of the scoring pylon. Meanwhile, Jeff Gordon is learning that, with the Sprint Cup car, the aero-loose tactic he learned so well and with such finesse from his mentor, Dale Earnhardt, does not work all that well.
Later on, with less than ninety laps to go, we are watching a great race for the lead between two great Virginian short track drivers, which is only fitting as the race is on a short track in Virginia. After taking the lead, Hurricane Hamlin is showing the stuff that earned him that nickname from the locals as he successfully negotiates lapped traffic. He makes it look easy, but this is his specialty. Backtracking a bit to the news that Robby Gordon is back on the track, after a visit to the garage to repair a rear end gear, I have to agree with DW's "Yikes!" in response to that news. I usually tolerate Robby's antics on the track--that is who he is and how he rides--but he has found misery at Martinsville and has been determined the entire race to spread that misery around. Now he is part of that lapped traffic Denny has to deal with, and we hold our breaths waiting to see if he causes more trouble. Denny, however gets by safely. He holds the lead, holds off a late charge by the great Jeff Gordon, and wins the race, which turned out to be very exciting, indeed. To quote race runner up Jeff Gordon, "it was an awesome race!"
Just because the race is over doesn't mean I am ready to wrap this up. I have a few final observations to make.
For instance, Elliott Sadler has to have a big pair of brass ones for racing with a bad back. We know from experience that this is a very painful condition--the pain is, in fact, nearly paralyzing. Sadler had to put up with a lot of pain to be able to finish the race.
Jamie McMurray did what he needed to do this race, to get his car back into the top thiry five in owners' points, and he did it quite admirably, staying on the lead lap, and staying out of trouble.
Tony Stewart may have shown Kyle Busch how a real racecar driver accepts a fifth place finish even if he has a car that is capable of winning. Hopefully the Schrub was watching. I'm not saying that Kyle isn't a real racecar driver, he is, but he still has a lot to learn. More on this in my next post.
I am probably forgetting a few things here, and hopefully my next post will catch these. The main point is, after a week off for Easter, the Martinsville race was well worth the wait.

It's time for the Big Show!

Is everybody in? The ceremony is about to begin.... - Jim Morrison "The Lizard King"
Indeed, everybody is in for the Big Show, The Great American Stock Car Race (as opposed to The Great American Race, the Indianapolis 500), The Superbowl of Automobile Racing, a.k.a The Daytona 500 gets the green flag today.
Those of us who have loved racing for a long time understand the significance of the "most anticipated event in racing history." It is not only the first points race of the season, but is perhaps the most coveted victory by the drivers and teams for the entire season. It isn't just the trophy, nor is it the prize money; it is the opportunity to have your name written in history along with names like Lee Petty. Richard Petty, Fireball Roberts, Mario Andretti, Dale Earnhardt, and Jeff Gordon. Racers who win the Daytona 500 become household words for generations to come. A Daytona 500 victory is more important to most drivers than the Championship points Cup itself.
Add to all that the fact that this is the fiftieth anniversary of the all-important race, and a victory today becomes even more prestigious.
It is not easy to pick a winner of this race, in any year, but, this year especially, there are even more unknowns than there have been in years past. The restricter-plate, which causes the cars to run together in close packs throughout the race, has been the instigater of many a multiple car accident, but this year the effects of the horsepower limiting device are even more unpredictable.
First of all we have a new car that has different aerodynamic properties, and a higher center of gravity than the cars we have seen over the last twenty years or so. There has been a limited preview of what to expect from this car, in the Budweiser Shootout and the Gatorade Duels qualifying heats. The car seems racier than the old car, although the handling appears to be unstable. It seems that the new car can close faster on other cars, and actually has the ability to pass other cars without as much drafting help as the older cars needed. On the other hand, there seems to be more work that needs to be done to find a set up that will allow the car to turn, and not be so tough on the right side tires that tire wear becomes a factor in the survival of the car.
The bottom line is, when it comes to the new car, everybody is a rookie at Daytona.
It seems that, because the car is new, and everyone has about the same amount of experience in it, the best picks to win would be those who have superior car control abilities, and those who are the most adaptable from one type of car to the other. This makes picking a top five fairly easy, but, at the same time, clouds the outlook on who has the best chance to win.
The media is abuzz about Dale Earnhardt, Jr for good reason. He won the Bud Shootout, scoring his first victory in 66 races. He followed that up by winning the first heat of the Gatorade Duels, last Thursday, making it look easy, and racking up the most wins of any current driver in the CoT at Daytona. There is no doubt that he is excellent at car control, which makes him a favorite to win. A car control driver can always beat a driver who depends more on horsepower to get the job done. It doesn't hurt that Earnhardt is the most popular driver, being the favorite of nearly 2/3rds of all NASCAR fans who have a favorite driver. With luck as important as it is in restricter-plate races, all that positive energy has to be beneficial.
Speaking about positive energy, Tony Stewart is fresh from celebrating being the very first Nationwide Series race winner. Denny Hamlin won the second heat of the Gatorade Duels last Thursday, which happened to be Toyota's first Cup win, and Smoke finished second. Joe Gibbs Racing seems to be on a roll, and headed in a direction that will make domination by Hendrick Motorsports very tough indeed. With Coach Joe Gibbs back in the shop, the key phrase is "the team comes first." That could be seen by the exuberance with which the drivers congratulated each other after Hamlin's win, and the comradarie between Stewart and Kyle Busch after they raced one on one to the finish of the Nationwide race. If these three drivers hook up together for the 500, everybody else better watch out. I would at least expect Hamlin and Stewart to finish in the top five, but Kyle, with his all or nothing style, could actually find himself a winner. It just depends on how his luck runs.
That doesn't leave Jeff Gordon out of it. He had a near win in the second of the Gatorade Duels races, and it was only the cooperation of Stewart and Hamlin that beat him. Gordon is one of the smartest drivers out there, as well as one of the most experienced, and if he can find a way to be the first to cross the finish line, he will.
Those are my top five drivers for the Daytona 500, but because of the fact that there are always so many unknowns and unpredictables anybody who starts the race has a chance to win.
Dave Blaney, for instance, stayed with Stewart in the Bud Shootout for the entire race, and finished in the top ten. Again, he teamed up with Tony in the second Gatorade Duels race, and probably would have had another good finish if it weren't for his characteristic bad luck that brought about engine failure. He is a much better driver than his record shows, in my opinion, and with better equipment this year, he just might be a dark horse contender for a Daytona 500 win. Wouldn't that be something, to have his first career Cup win be at the Daytona 500.
I would also watch Brian Vickers, who came back from a spin and a bad pit stop in the first of Thursday's Gatorade Duels to race his way into qualifying for the 500. Now that he is in, he can be hell on wheels, and should be considered as another dark horse pick.
I should also say, don't count out any of the Ford teams. they might not have had the best practice or testing speeds, but they are racy and they include some of the best drivers in the sport. The same can be said for the three Richard Childress teams.
So, before I find it necessary to name every driver in the field, I better bring this to a close so it can be published before the race, which is only a matter of hours away as I write this, No matter who wins, I think we are in for a treat. If the races leading up to this one are any indication, we are going to see some of the best racing at Daytona we have seen since the introduction of the restricter plate. So, enjoy the race, because the best prediction one can make is, it is going to be a Race.

Debacle at Dover

The Sponsor To Be Announced Series (STBA), also known as the Busch Series held a spectacle at Dover, Saturday afternoon. It would have been a race, except it seemed that there would be a crash and a caution every fifteen to twenty laps, barely enough time to let the tire pressure come up to specs. There were a total of thirteen cautions, all before lap 140, all caused by a spin out or a crash. It got pretty old, after the ninth caution, because most of us wanted to see a race.
Not to say there wasn't any racing going on. We saw some good sprints featuring brilliant flashes of skill, performed by Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex, Jr., and Carl Edwards.
We could see where the mistakes were being made. Dover, or any concrete surface raceway, is especially hard on tires, and the way the drivers were aggressively following the line between the high groove and the low groove used up the tires pretty quickly. Not to mention driver error. One began to wonder, if it weren't for the above mentioned "Buschwhackers," would the race have finished at all?
There were stories, last year, about the existence of a Jeff Gordon Voodoo doll, but if it did exist, it was probably a Greg Biffle Voodoo doll disguised as Jeff Gordon.
I'm not a big fan of Da Biff, but I do think he is one good race car driver, and it is sad to see he just can't seem to shake the bad luck. After starting at the pole, with a darn good car, a series of being in the wrong place at the wrong time set him as far back as two laps down. I want to see the guy have some measure of success, because, like him or not, a good running Biffle makes a good race.
The star of the show was, of course, Denny Hamlin. The Virginian suffered so badly from a head cold, he could be seen leaning against the car for support before the race began. Once there, the car was the cure, and he led for 138 out of 200 laps. Now, imagine this; you have a head cold, feel weak and feverish, and you get into a car in which the temperature rises to above 120 degrees F. You are pulling 3 times the force of gravity going around the turns, and you have to stay constantly active to put the car where it is supposed to be. Show me one professional basketball or football player who could do that, even without a head cold. Then tell me NASCAR isn't an athletic sport. They wouldn't be able to get on the field or court, if they had a cold like that.
Having that little rant out of my system, we can look forward to a good Cup race, Sunday. Let's just hope the driving is a little better.

The Johnny Paul Invitational

Photo by: AFP/Luis Acosta
From the very beginning, there was little doubt that Juan Pablo Montoya (Johnny Paul Beauford to some people in the state of Washington) would win the NASCAR Busch Series road race in Mexico City. He took the lead early, lost it due to a fueling problem in the pits, and quickly returned up to the front of the pack. We got to see the kind of driving that has made JPM both famous and infamous.
It is not my intent to justify for Montoya the wrecking of his teammate to take the lead, it was purely a move of impatience. JPM would have won the race anyway--both he and his car clearly outclassed the rest of the field--so he didn't have to make the "kamikaze" move he did with eight lap to go. It would have been much more fun to watch him take Scott Pruett in the esses, or in the drag race to turn 1, or at least with more finesse in that turn than he exhibited.
In Formula 1, there is an understood "blue flag" rule, where the slower car, even if in the lead, is expected to let the faster car overtake. This could be why he decided to move when he did--he thought Pruett was slower, and that he would be given room to pass. JPM has said that he has much to learn, still, about racing in NASCAR, and we hope he learned something on his way to his first NASCAR victory.
All that aside, it was an exciting race. Denny Hamlin once again showed us his capability and competive prowess while he raced the more experienced JPM hard and close. That race had me on my feet and scaring the cats.
Update: The legislater who made the comments about NASCAR and NASCAR fans, has apologized and spun his earlier statements to mean the ISC. I still don't have his correct name, but I wonder if he read my blog on the subject.
Nah, I'm just being pretentious.

The Big Finale

Well, here we are, at the final race. There is always something melancholy about the end of the season, but the good news is that NASCAR has the shortest off season of all professional sports--twelve weeks from Sunday's race at Homestead until the Daytona 500 in February. And there is more good news--if only in that the season has been probably the best and most exciting since 1998. It has been very satisfying for those of us who can't seem to get enough excitement. And there is the fact that, going into the last race, the Championship has not been decided yet.

Of course, Jimmie Johnson has the best chance to take the Cup, being sixty-three points ahead of second place. This means, he clinches the championship if he finishes seventeenth or better. If he leads a lap during the race, getting bonus points, he only has to finish twelfth or better, regardless of where Matt Kenseth and the other three contenders finish.
Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are tied for third place, ninety points out of the lead. There will likely be times during the race that one or both of them will move up closer to the points lead. Say, for instance, that on lap 112, Kenseth is leading the race, Havick and Hamlin are running in the top ten, and Johnson is way back in twenty-fifth or twenty-sixth place. This situation would put these two guys within thirty points in the lead. This theoretical example is to illustrate exactly how close the championship race is between the top four drivers. As it happens, there are many different sets of circumstances which could put Hamlin or Harvick in the points lead by the end of the race.

Momentum is on Johnson's side, however. The #48 team has been performing exceptionally well since the last race at Talledega, and no amount of bad luck during the race seems to be a handicap for the team by the end. Still, with the competition being what it is, the driver among the top five who has the least bad luck will be the 2006 champion.





None of the contenders can afford to have something like this happen.